[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]
It seems like Republicans are doing, as Mitch McConnell might say, their “Washington best” to lower expectations for the 2008 Senate elections. Here is a collection of interesting quotes from Republicans in the know regarding the ’08 Senate races.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:
Republicans are unlikely to win back control of the Senate in 2008, their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell, said Friday, gloomily predicting that “holding our own is about all we could hope for.” … “It would take an extraordinarily good day to get back up to 50. So our goal is to stay roughly where we are.” [CNN, 7/20/07]
(Much more below the fold.)
NRSC Chair John Ensign:
“If you scratch the surface, things don’t look necessarily that good,” he said. “But when you get below the surface, things aren’t nearly as bad as what they could be.” [Associated Press, 9/9/07]
and
In a “wide-ranging” interview, Ensign “acknowledged that his party faces a steep, uphill climb in next year’s Senate elections when 21 Republican seats will be up for grabs, compared with 12 for the Democrats.” [Washington Times, 3/26/07]
NRSC Communications Director Rebecca Fisher:
Rebecca Fisher, communications director for the NRSC, acknowledged “the mountain that we’re up against,” but predicted success. [USINFO, 9/10/07]
Anonymous GOP Operative:
“About the only safe Republican Senate seats in ’08 are the ones that aren’t on the ballot,” a GOP operative with extensive experience in Senate races said. “I don’t see even the rosiest scenario where we don’t end up losing more seats.” [Washington Post, 9/2/07]
Unnamed Republican Senators:
“Republican Senators are now talking about losing four seats in 2008.” [Evans-Novak Political Report, 8/29/07]
It is shaping up like Republican leadership expects a four-seat net loss to be the best-case scenario. I expect we’ll see more commentary from Republicans along these lines as the races further develop. If you’ve seen any similar quotes already, share them in the comments.
Safe/Republican Favored
A)Republican Senators from Red State whose job approval rating is above 50% and disapproval rating is below 40%. and won previous Senate races by landslide margins
1)Alabama- Sessions (R)
2)Kansas- Roberts (R)
3)Mississippi- Cochran (R)
4)Wyoming- Enzi (R)
B) First Term Republican Senators from Red States.
1)Georgia- Chambliss-(R) possibly vulnerable. need a Sam Nunn type Democrat.
2)North Carolina- Dole(R)- vulnerable.
3)South Carolina- Graham(R)- safe.
4)Tennesse- Alexander(R)- vulnerable- assuming McWhether runs.
5)Texas- Cornyn(R)- safe- it is Texas.
6)Wyoming- Barrasso (R) safe-
C) Scandal plagued or controversial Senators.
1)Alaska- Stevens(R) safe Republican- Alaska is unlikely to send a Democrat to the US Senate.
2)Idaho- open Craig(R)- safe Republican- a ruby red unlikely to send a Democrat to the US Senate.
3)New Mexico- Domenici- vulnerable-Democratic takeover if Open.
4)Oklahoma- Inhofe(R)- Safe Republican- red state unlikely to send a Democrat to the US Senate.
Rest are vulnerable/Democratic Takeover.